The effects of climate change and the consequences of adaptation measures are uncertain. These uncertainties can be more profound than the "risk", where at least the probabilities of possible future outcomes are known. In particular, there can be a "Knightian uncertainty", where we know the possible outcomes but not their probabilities. In this inter- and transdisciplinary project, we investigate both the risk and uncertainty of climate change impacts and adaptation measures using the example of the German North Sea coast, where people benefit from a range of ecosystem services that are subject to climate change and alternative land use options. In this case, both risk and uncertainty are relevant for decisions on local adaptation to climate change. We combine economics with landscape ecology through modelling and involve local stakeholders in the analysis and conclusion process.
Project Lead Prof. Dr. Stefan Baumgärtner (Universität Freiburg), Subprojects 2 and 4 Prof. Dr. Boris Schröder-Esselbach
Team Dr. Anett Schibalski, Dr. Conrad Jackisch
External Cooperation Partners Universität Freiburg
Duration 2018-2021
Funding Body BMBF, DLR