Coastal regions will be especially affected by climate change, i.e. rising sea-levels, increase of storms and winter precipitation. Ecosystems might change in ways that affect the stability of ecosystem functions and, thus, the provision of ecosystem services that coastal communities rely on today.
This project will investigate different land use scenarios for sites at the German North and Baltic Sea coast under climate change. The main focus is to evaluate ecosystem functions and services provided by these coastal regions and how they are affected by environmental change and different land management options. Work package 5 ("Modelling of biodiversity and plant-mediated ecosystem services (ESS) in response to land use management and environmental change") is undertaken by the University of Potsdam. Part 1 of this sub-project lies with the Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, part 2 with the Institute of Biochemistry and Biology.
In detail, WP 5 will yield the ecological evaluation of the COMTESS scenarios by statistically modelling the functional and response diversity (WP 5.1) and developing a process- based model for the spatio- temporal dynamics of key species and plant- mediated ESS (WP 5.2). For this purpose, we will upscale the plot-level one (or two)-year measurements of WP 1 - 4 to the landscape scale and to time scales ranging from 2010 to 2100. The statistical niche modelling of WP 5.1 will be enhanced with the transient plant community dynamics captured by the individual-based model of WP 5.2. Finally, the insurance effect of functionally redundant species on the resilience of ESF and, thus, the provision of ESS will be analysed for variable environmental conditions. The predictions from WP 5 will be summarized in a GIS modelling shell used by later work packages for the ecological-economic analysis. More...
Project Lead Prof. Dr. Michael Kleyer (Universität Oldenburg), Teilprojekte 5 und 8: Prof. Dr. Boris Schröder-Esselbach
Team Dr. Anett Schibalski,
External Cooperation Partners Universität Potsdam, Universität Rostock, Universität Oldenburg, Universität Freiburg, Universität Hohenheim, Universität Greifswald, Universität Hildesheim, Universität Koblenz-Landau
Duration 2011-2016
Funding Body BMBF, FONA, DLR