Responsible
- Katharina Wachter
Project Partners
- Technische Universität Braunschweig
- Institute of Machine Tools and Production Engineering
- Institute of Economics
- RWTH Aachen
- Chair of Operations Management
- Volkswagen AG
- Group Market Research, Trend Research and Analyses
Initial Situation and Problem
The traffic sector considerably contributes to the global environmental, economic and social problems. One possibility for the evolution towards sustainable mobility is the development of alternative powertrains like hybrid, electric or hydrogen cars. However, the multitude of these technologies is still in the stage of development, so that essential parameters have not yet been defined. In combination with varying and partly conflicting interests of and interdependencies between the different actors involved in the automotive sector – political and industrial decision makers as well as consumers – the further market development remains uncertain. Furthermore, uncertain as well as conflicting environmental, economic and social impacts complicate an anticipative evaluation of alternative powertrains with regard to their sustainability.
Objective and Approach
The aim of the project is the identification and intertemporal allocation of sustainable – that means environmentally, economically and socially efficient – powertrain strategies for Germany and China. This consists of determining a global optimum on the one hand. On the other hand recommendations for political and industrial decision makers as well as consumers can be deducted from the analysis of their specific decision situation and the resulting optima. Additionally information on reaching the global optimum despite decentralized decision making can be generated.
For the AIP the main objective is the conception of a decision support for automotive manufacturers with regard to the optimal intertemporal design of their product portfolio. Additionally the purchasing behavior of consumers in established and growing markets is investigated to ensure the acceptance of sustainable technologies.
The project is split up into four phases. Three of these are dedicated to the involved stakeholders of the automotive sector – politics, suppliers and consumers – whereas a holistic point of view is taken in the fourth part to evaluate the alternative powertrains with regard to their overall impact.
Within the first working phase different options to influence automotive manufacturers and consumers through guidelines or incentives are analyzed. Furthermore methods that ensure long term commitment of politicians to sustainability are discussed and evaluated.
In the second working phase potential powertrain technologies are analyzed and evaluated. In the following a decision support for the automotive manufacturer is designed by the AIP. Based on this, the optimal intertemporal allocation of the previously identified technologies within the product portfolio of the manufacturer is determined.
The behavior of consumers will be simulated in an agent based model that is developed by the AIP in cooperation with the Volkswagen AG. Segment- and country-specific preferences and decision rules of the consumers are depicted. With the help of scenarios the impact of different basic conditions on car sales and stock will be simulated and analyzed.
The holistic evaluation of alternative powertrains is made possible by the combination of the individual models in the fourth working phase. Environmental, economic and social objectives are considered to assess the efficiency of the technologies with regard to their sustainability.
Further Information
For further information about this research project please refer to its final report (in German only).