Responsible
- Jörg Wansart
Project Partners
- Institut für Verkehrssicherheit und Automatisierungstechnik (Institute for Traffic Safety and Automation Engineering)
Initial Situation and Problem
The global warming as one of the most pressing environmental problems resulting from CO2 emissions depends on a high degree on human behavior. A t an increasing rate it is intended to counteract the emission by legal measures. The transport sector is focused by the legislator because it creates a high amount of CO2 emissions in all developed economies. Car manufacturer are obligated worldwide to produce vehicles with low fuel consumption and less exhaust emission. Furthermore the introduction of new vehicle fuels like ethanol and in a long-range hydrogen shall be accelerated because they promise a motorized transport that creates less emissions.
In the past it has been shown that extremely economical cars with low fuel consumption has not been accepted. Quite contrary to it the last years have shown a trend to bigger and heavier cars although the fuel prices have been increased. In so far the car manufacturer are interested in the assessment of the consequences that follow by this and similar legislative initiatives to enforce necessary adaptations in their strategic planning.
Objective and Approach
The aim of the project is the development of a simulation model for the assessment of possible consequences of current and prospective regulatory measures for the automotive market. The problem will be solved from the point of view of car manufacturer instead of a legislator which is the conventional approach. In consequence the company gets a tool that enables the possibility to analyze and improve the quality of the long-term planning in a complex market environment. By modeling of relevant relationships new insights about the effect of regulations and own behavior will be gained.
The concrete use case of the legislation to stem exhaust emissions in California is chosen so that the modeling can be approached purposefully. Regarding the strict limit values and the way of introducing of the law the Californian legislation can be considered as one of the world's leading laws. In fact of this exemplary function similar regulations will be introduced in other markets if they expose to be successful.
The methodic basis for the simulation model is build on System Dynamics, an approach that is based on cybernetics, which has been developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The approach allows a comprehensive modeling of complex dynamic systems and the interconnection of different single models. Thereby as many factors about back-coupling as possible will be integrated into the model to receive a nearly complete image of the influencing factors. Beside the influence upon purchase decisions and vehicle usage the development of infrastructure and macro economic developments will be pictured.